There could be serious consequences for the World’s economies over the next few years if the World Bank’s recent predictions are proven correct. While our esteemed leaders are saying Australia is well placed to ride out the difficulties and they continue to pat themselves on the back for a job well done in 2007, the reality is we aren’t in control. Not over the overall global economic conditions anyway. However, we are in control over how we react to those conditions.
If the predictions do prove to be correct, the consequences on the availability of credit for businesses in Australia will be significant. The results of that could be:
· One’s ability to access cash will become more important, if not critical.
· The supply of money will be tighter making harder to get.
· Money will be more expensive if and when you do get it.
· Your ability to grow may be constrained because of an inability to access suitably priced finance.
· Your profit margins may be eroded due to the cost of funding.
· Executives will be working harder for less return.
My mother always taught me that an ounce of prevention was better than a pound of cure. Sound advice for businesses as it is always better to be prepared for difficult times rather than deal with them if and when they hit. Successful businesses are always prepared and have a “Plan B”, even if they don’t need or used it. I wrote about this in November in a previous blog back where I laid out four steps that could be taken in preparation of what I called “Having an ‘R-Plan’” – plans for a recession, should it occur.
Now is the time to get prepared for the possibility that more difficult times are ahead and take the actions necessary for that preparation. If we take actions that ensure your business is Lean and Agile now, the business will be able to successfully adapt to whatever demand patterns the economy throws at it.
Business today should have:
1. As much as possible of its capital is in cash.
2. A low debt level.
Where Is The Cash?
It is not unusual for Inventory and Accounts Receivable to account for the majority of capital employed in a business. I call these areas lazy assets. They are lazy because, money is tied up and not necessarily producing as high a return as is possible – therefore they don’t work hard for you and are inherently lazy. Good inventory management is a sound preventive action and ensures that the capital employed is working as hard as it can to deliver value to the business.
Many consider inventory, specifically the accounting fraternity, as an asset. This is evidenced by the fact it is included in the current assets section of an organisation’s balance sheet. This is rationalized in this manner because supposedly the inventory a company purchases can be quickly sold and converted back to cash either by a discount or, if necessary, a fire sale.
Unfortunately many of us disagree with this assessment and treatment of the investment made. I don’t consider having to conduct a fire sale as an asset albeit it can return some cash quickly. The amount that can be returned under these circumstances will depend on the economic conditions prevailing at the time.
Generally, however, this type of activity is undertaken when times are tough and cash is required. This is usually a time when many other companies are most likely doing the same thing, therefore lowering demand for such product.
Therefore we have formed the view that while in an accounting sense inventory is classified as an asset, I actually consider it a liability until it has been turned into profit. Only then has the investment added value to the organisation. Until then it’s really a liability in sheep’s clothing.
So if times get tough there should be little comfort in having investments in a, so called, asset named inventory. There is little value to be generated by having an investment in a capital item that incurs unnecessary costs while it waits in the hope (just in case) a customer places an order.
One technique that will release a significant amount of cash from a business is disciplined Inventory Management.
Inventory management, however, is not a popular discipline and generally is not well handled. It is like the “Ugly Sister” of the business world, everyone knows they are there but they don’t want to go there. Business people all know that managing inventory is necessary but we don’t like doing it and therefore we don’t. Many feel it requires more effort than it is worth. So we simply resort to doing stocktakes once a year so we can comply with our financial reporting and auditing obligations and call that inventory management. As a result businesses workaround the symptoms poor inventory management creates rather than addressing the real problem.
Inventory management can be very productive, worthwhile and not overly demanding on the business if handled correctly. I often talk to clients about inventory management in terms of personal health issues, like oral health. What would your teeth and subsequent overall health be like if you only cleaned them once a year, or once every month, the common frequency for inventory management? Obviously they would not be in good health. Likewise your business requires a disciplined regime to keep it in good health.
If we care to take the effort to work on our inventory health every day then, just like having the right routine for clearing your teeth, daily preventative measures prevent a) A bigger problem developing over time and b) Having to develop workarounds for the resulting issues that arise.
What good inventory management disciplines do provide are: a) Certainty in decision-making. This results from having accurate data. b) Systems that facilitate growth and are agile to changes in demand.
Fundamentally, organisations have inventory so they are able to supply product when a customer places an order or demand for a product or service increases. This means that organisations make sure they have inventories in warehouses and storage areas “Just In Case” a customer places an order. The more outlets and storage areas a company has the higher the risk of not having the stock the customer wants, when they want it or in the location they want it. This results in:
· An increasing demand for capital to fund the inventory purchases.
· An increasing cost of holding & managing that inventory.
· Larger warehouses and storage areas in which to store the inventory.
· Increasingly poor visibility of where inventory actually is within the company’s system.
· Inaccurate inventory records; the system will say one quality when the reality is something completely different.
· A lowering of customer service and possible loss of sales.
The good news is that it is possible to have lower inventory without sacrificing customer service levels. This can be achieved by having a well designed, disciplined and well-executed inventory management system in place, thereby ensuring the right level of product is in the right place at the right time.
Most executives, and very often the accountants within a firm, don’t take acknowledge the cost of having this inventory in stock. They often have, in their minds, more important issues to be concerned about. While they might accept inventory has a cost over and above the purchase price - in general terms because there isn’t a line item on a P&L called cost of holding inventory, it does not get the attention or concern it deserves.
It is however a very real cost despite there being little appreciation of what that cost really is. Various studies into this have shown it varies depending on what industry the company is in. However, the studies all indicate the cost of holding inventory varies somewhere between 25% and 35% of the cost of the inventory holding. So this means, for every $1 million held in inventory your cost structure is between $250,000 and $300,000 worse off than it needs to be.
This lack of appreciation of the importance comes about because; the cost is spread across a variety of P&L line items the cost and, as mentioned before, does not have a single line item on the P&L. An executive can’t go directly to a particular account and examine what the cost is. The hold cost is made up of Rent, Electricity, Stock writeoffs, Damaged stock, Unproductive & wasted effort by staff and a myriad of others components.
There is, therefore, little opportunity to see the direct causal link between holding the level of inventory and the possibility of a reduction in costs.
Summary
So we have established that:
· Capital is going to become more difficult to secure in the future.
· Financial institutions might as a result review conditions that apply to your current borrowing arrangements.
· The cost of that capital is going to be more expensive if you do in fact get it.
· Inventory consumes a large percentage of this capital.
· Much of this Inventory is kept for “Just In Case” a customer places an order and sits around for an unnecessary period of time.
· Most organisations don’t have disciplined inventory management systems in place to deal with this.
With this context in mind, I would like to present the 5 steps you can start taking tomorrow, to improve your inventory position and as a result release a significant amount of cash back into the business. All without adversely affecting your customer service levels. In fact in many cases as a result of these five steps, customer service actually improves.
1. Understand Your Inventory
As noted in the footnote to the title of this article, not all items can or should be managed in the same way. Different management and procurement techniques are required for each different inventory type. The characteristic of each inventory type is determined by the attributes of the demand for that item sold/used by the organization. A full understanding of these demand characteristics can provide profound insight into the requirements of the customers of the business.
We get this insight in the first instance through the use of the Pareto principle, often called the “80/20 Rule”. This is a simple (and often neglected) technique for identifying and understanding what causes are having the biggest impact on events. More on the Pareto principle can be found at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
The process of using the Pareto principle is simple when you have your data in an Excel™ Spreadsheet. The process has 5 steps;
I. Decide the basis upon which you wish to conduct your analysis. The two most common are revenue and profit. (My preference is profit for reasons that, hopefully, will become obvious shortly). Then perform the following calculations, depending on which basis you choose:
· Sales quantity X Price
· Sales quantity X Gross Profit
II. Rank the results this calculation generates from highest to lowest.
III. Create two columns to the right of the result of the ranking calculation. In the first, perform an accumulation total for your entire list. At the bottom of your list total the entire list. In the second new column, calculate what percentage of the total for the entire list, each line’s accumulated total represents.
IV. Find the spots where the accumulation percentages reach 20%, 60% and 80%. You might be surprised by what a small number of inventory items actually make up 80% of your sales/profit (depending upon which category you chose to use).
V. Based on your accumulation percentage totals, categorise your inventory into three groups:
i. A – represents the top 20% of your ranked list. They are “A” items because the represent items that move the most (sales quantity) and they will have the biggest impact on the business should something go wrong (highest sales/profit).
ii. B – represents the next 20%;
iii. C – represents the remaining items in your list
The categorisations will become the foundations for much of the work from this point on.
If you would like a template of this analysis sheet just send me an email at david@scs.com.au and I will forward one to you.
2. Set Up Metrics Around Inventory
Demming has been incorrectly quoted as saying “You can’t improve what you don’t measure”. While the source of the quote maybe incorrect, it still remains true that the best way to improve a process is to measure the outcomes of that process.
It is not an uncommon experience when I go into companies and ask some simple questions for many staff and executives not to know basic inventory statistics. The cause might be either because the organisation doesn’t measure them or the executives have no interest in keeping abreast of them. Statistics such as:
· Current Inventory Level (where is our inventory level at today?).
· What are our current inventory turns and/or more indepth, what are our inventory turns by SKU (Stock Keeping Unit)?
· What ABC category any inventory item belongs to.
Measuring outcomes like these are important because use of KPI measurements such as these drive behaviour within a business. This is a critical component to the successful use of KPI’s. (A subject I will blog on more later). But in summary: KPI’s are only useful to an organization if they are used to create and maintain desirable corporate behaviours.
In order for KPI’s to successfully change and maintain behaviours and to be valuable to management, the measurements in themselves must be:
1. Accurate,
2. Timely and
3. Actionable
If your organization doesn’t currently have measurements of this nature or they do but they don’t have any impact on behavior – then start setting behavior changing metrics now! Its critical to ensuring capital will be efficiently used.
If you would like to have an obligation free discussion on what those metrics could be, email me and we can start the discussion.
3. Be Disciplined and Persistent
Most business decisions rely in some way or another on inventory. The ability to make a sale or a promise to a customer relies on accuracy in inventory levels. Purchasing decisions rely on inventory accuracy to ensure out of stocks are minimised. Inaccuracy of inventory data is a major cause of poor customer service. Being disciplined and persistent in sound inventory management processes is a major contributor to ensuring inventory data is accurate.
Unfortunately more organisations than not only conduct yearly inventory counts (stocktakes). As I previously mentioned this is primarily done to satisfy accounting and auditing requirements rather than being an operational practice that creates good customer service and a successful business.
Successfully companies are more proactive than that. They are disciplined in their approach to inventory management and they are persistent in its execution. As I mentioned earlier good oral health requires a thorough daily process of cleaning one’s teeth twice a day. If you don’t have this level of discipline and persistence then the chances are you will be having difficulties with your teeth, either now or in the near future. Likewise successful companies need to undertake a daily regime to ensure best practice inventory management practices are utilized thereby avoiding avoidable issues.
The daily regime I speak of involves implementing a daily cycle counting regime based on the ABC analysis we spoke about earlier. The key is the discipline of doing this frequently, and the most effective frequency is daily.
This for of cycle counting aim to have A items counted at least monthly. By their nature they need the highest level of attention and management because the risk of issues is high and the impact of any issues is high. B’s are counted less frequently, usually once every three months and C’s are to be counted at least once a year. So by counting a quantity from each of the ABC categories everyday, this frequency of counts is achieved.
4. Review Procurement Practices
Implementing such counting practices will quickly highlight inventory that is either obsolete or is slow moving. Removal of obsolete items and reducing the amount held on the slow moving items to a more demand driven level is how we release the cash back into the business.
The greatest sin of all would be to go through such a reduction process, release capital from the business and then to allow the same old processes that created the problem in the first place to replenish that inventory all over again.
Einstein has been quoted as saying, “In order to fix a problem, a different level of thinking is required to that which created it in the first place”. So in order to avoid repeating the sins of the past, new ways of thinking and new processes are required.
In many organisations inventory reordering levels or other triggers that generate a purchase order have not been objectively reviewed for many years. In many places this is because staff believe they are close to the requirements and understand what is needed. Often saying things like, “I have been doing this job for years, I know what I am doing”. But often a close look at cold hard data tells a different story. Just like retail store owners are often blind to the appearance of their store because they are in it every day, likewise someone performing the same task every day can be blind to how it can be improved.
A review of procurement processes and the fundamental assumptions they are based on should be conduced on a regular basis. If this hasn’t been carried out in your business within the last 18 months – start now!!! Ensure that the different categories of inventory are managed and purchased in different ways using different trigger mechanisms. There is no one way for all things.
Unless these are reviewed the company will be doomed to repeat the behaviour of the past.
5. Be Brutal With Obsolete Items
As I discussed out the outset, companies have inventory “Just In case” an order arrives. So it becomes very easy to justify the keeping of stock that has been identified as obsolete in the ABC analysis we discussed. It is all too easy to say we will keep it for a rainy day. One must be brutal with obsolete items. They must be disposed of and done so quickly.
This may require selling/disposing of the items for less than the cost to purchase. The amount lost in this transaction is often far outweighed by the on‑going costs of holding that inventory, especially if you include the opportunity cost of not being able to re-deploy that capital elsewhere.
Fundamentally it comes back to really understanding what business you are in and what are the requirements of your customer. Clearly this has been misjudged in the past otherwise the inventory you have wouldn’t have been classified as obsolete.
Often this inventory is there because we strategically tried something new and it didn’t work. One needs to recognize this fact and take steps to release the capital it has employed and get on and deploy it elsewhere on another (hopefully) more successful venture.
Of course demand for products will shift and fads do come and go over time. But often an organisation’s processes don’t change in response. It is critical that this 5 step process I have outlined is repeated on a regular basis to ensure the finger remains firmly on the pulse of the business.
6. Bonus Point
People often don’t take action until they are at the point of self-destruction. This is true on a personal and professional level. As humans we are wired to react to fast moving threats. It’s our “Fight or Flight” response. However, as a species we do not handle slow moving threats very well. We refuse to take immediate action preferring to hope things might change which will result in us not having to take action at all. Poor economic or business performance is a slow moving threat. It is not something that develops overnight or drops in our lap. It occurs slowly over a long period of time.
The issue of not acting until the point of self-destruction is clearly evidenced by Receivers and Administrators when they are appointed to wind up a company. They often indicate that the winding up action would not have been necessary if corrective action had been taken earlier.
Don’t leave your actions until it is too late. Sound and successful business starts with solid basics. There is nothing more basic than disciplined inventory management.